NASDAQ:OSTK) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.” data-reactid=”28″ type=”text”>Today we’ll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Overstock.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSTK) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.” data-reactid=”29″ type=”text”>Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$39.3m||US$64.1m||US$105.7m||US$152.9m||US$189.9m||US$223.2m||US$252.2m||US$276.7m||US$297.5m||US$315.0m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Est @ 24.15%||Est @ 17.57%||Est @ 12.97%||Est @ 9.74%||Est @ 7.49%||Est @ 5.91%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.7%||US$35.8||US$53.3||US$80.1||US$106||US$120||US$128||US$132||US$132||US$130||US$125|
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.7%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 r)10= US$4.3b÷ ( 1 9.7%)10= US$1.7b” data-reactid=”44″ type=”text”>Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 r)10= US$4.3b÷ ( 1 9.7%)10= US$1.7b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.8b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$81.7, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Overstock.com as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 9.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.238. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It’s not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Overstock.com, we’ve compiled three additional aspects you should assess:
- Risks: Take risks, for example – Overstock.com has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does OSTK’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
search here.” data-reactid=”70″ type=”text”>PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.