A good rainy season will favour crops and the economy battling a second wave of coronavirus infections.
India will probably experience normal monsoon rainfall this year as La Nina or El Nino weather conditions, which impact rain patterns, are likely to be absent, according to according to state-run forecaster India Meteorological Department.
Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, had said on Tuesday the southwest monsoon in 2021 starting June is likely to be ‘normal’ at 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA for June to September rainfall is estimated to be 880.6 millimeters which means that if the forecast come true, the actual rainfall in the country could be around 907 millimeters. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered a normal rainfall.
Skymet’s prediction meant that for the third consecutive year, India will have a normal to above normal rainfall during the monsoon months.
Actual rainfall across India was 109 per cent of LPA in 2020; it was 110 per cent of the LPA in 2019.
Last time, India had three consecutive years of normal monsoon, according to Skymet, was in between 1996 to 1998, more than two decades back.
A good, well distributed and timely monsoon will mean another year of bumper farm production in 2021, potentially helping India’s economy that’s battling a second wave of Covid-19 infections.
“I feel it is too early to predict anything about the impact of normal rains on agriculture or the general economy because all depend on the arrival of monsoon rains, their timeliness, spread and distribution.
But, yes, as an initial reaction, it is good development,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Care Ratings told Business Standard.
Skymet also said that there is 85 per cent probability of rainfall across the country to be normal to above-normal rainfall in 2021 and just 15 per cent chance of rainfall being below normal and no chance of widespread drought in the country this year.
The 2020 southwest monsoon season was 9 per cent above average, which made it the second consecutive year of rainfall being more than normal, a feat that happened for the first time in almost 60 years.
Buoyed by the good rains, the total food grain harvest in 2020-21 is estimated to be over 300 million tonnes which was an all-time high harvest. EoM
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