An analysis of high-frequency data points available till July indicates some encouraging signs of a gradual, though uneven, recovery across different sectors as compared to the collapse seen in April.
Retail sales of passenger vehicles and two-wheelers have touched almost 85% and 60% of pre-Covid levels, from a situation of zero sales in April. Comparatively, retail tractor sales grew by 35% YoY in July.
The decline in petrol and diesel consumption has also narrowed sharply to 14% and 15%, respectively, on a YoY basis from 60% and 56%, respectively, in April. Select indicators linked to movement of goods like Fastag volumes and e-way bill generation were also encouraging, reverting to 70-75% of pre-Covid levels.
However, the recovery in travel and hospitality sectors would take time, given apprehensions regarding travel. This is reflected in the share price of auto and airline firms.